Fear the Newt

Newt Gingrich Wins Big over Stumbling Romney in South Carolina Primary

I think that as Canadians we can all agree, wether some of us like it or not, that what goes on poltically with our big brother to the south, the United States of America, greatly effects what life is like, both economically and even at times militarily, in our own great country.

With that said, I will be speaking about the Republican primary race from time to time. Keeping you up to date on the issues, events and results as they occur, and as best I am able.

Newt Gingrich's victory in South Carolina; with Newt capturing 40% of the vote, Mitt Romney in second with 28% of the vote, Rick Santorum with 17% and Ron Paul with 13%; as history would suggest, since South Carolina has never been wrong about who is going to win the Republican nomniation for President, since the state chose Ronald Reagan in 1980, potentially seals Gingrich's victory for the Republican Party candidacy.

More after the break.

However, even though Newt Gingrich won a massive victory last night it does not necessarily mean that history is going to repeat itself, as it has since 1980, and this result does not necessarily mean that because Gingrich won in South Carolina that makes him a lock for victory in the long-run. Especially, since Romney, Newt's main opponent at this stage in the race, has a massive machine in Flordia, the state of the next primary vote. Not only that, but with Romney winning New Hampshire, and Gingrich winning South Carolina, and us learning this week that Santorum was the actual victor in Iowa, this race remains wide open.

Yet, Romney should be nervous about Gingrich's rise in the polls and his huge victory in South Carolina. This is because when the primaries began in September 2011, Mitt Romney, well no one believed a lock, was still viewed by nearly everyone as the clear cut favorite to win the nomination quite handily. Yet, it is now the case that in the first primary in Iowa, the unlikely Santorum not Romney, claimed vicotry. Moreover, in New Hampshire, Romney's home state, he failed to win as big as many expected him to. Now, this is not to suggest that he did not mwin a massive victory, cause he did. Winning 39% of the vote and having a substantial lead over second place finisher Ron Paul, who finished 23% of the vote. It is noteworthy though for this reason: Mitt Romney has been campaigning in New Hampshire for the chance to run for President of the United States since 2004 and yet he did not reach the 40% mark in New Hampshire. (40% according to most political pundits is the number they look for to be able to say that a state clearly favored one candidate over all others)

Another reason that Romney should be worried, is how poorly he did in the debates in South Carolina. Watching them it seemed to me that he had no real original answers to any of the questions that were asked, and instead merely amalgamated pieces of other's answers to the questions together, especially thier applause lines. Now, I know that Romney supporters are going to suggest that this is because in a primary race inside a party everyone basically agrees with one another on the issues, so of course they are all going to sound like one another. Yet, I do beleive that this is cause for concern since once again going into the primaries, Romney was supposed to be the great debator, the slickest, coolest and greatest at debates. Yet, I don't even think Romney supporters can disagree with me on this one, Newt Gingrich schooled Romney in the debates, as far as being able to manipulate the crowd and come up with the best lines.

Lastly, the main reason for concern in the Romney camp should be this statistic, presented on the news coverage of Fox News last night (yes, for my liberal friends, the imperialist dog Fox News, Fox News). The statistic is this, that South Carolina voters, a whopping 48% of the them, thought that Gingrich not Romney was more electable and thus better able to defeat Obama in the general election. This is most concerning because this has always been Romney's great equalizer, the fact that he was the only candidate capable of defeating Obama in the general election.

Let me know what you think in the comments below and who you would like to see for President of the United States in 2012, and why, keeping in mind your choice in relation to its effect on Canada.

- On a side note, Rick Santorum, who I will be honest right now is my guy, with his ability to capture 17% of the vote in South Carolina, ahead of last place finisher Ron Paul who had 13% of the vote, is clearly continuing to get traction and I believe should stay in the race. However, I will admit that in a state that is dominated by evangelical Christians, and with Santorum receiving endorsments by many prominant Christian evangelical communities and leaders throughout the South, to capture only 17% of the vote has to be a little disconcerting for Santorum. Especially, with the prmary now heading into another evangelical state, Florida.

- Corey S.

<THINK ABOOT IT>